The Obama administration and Turkish tactics

Published: Thursday October 15, 2009

Edward Nalbandian with Hillary Clinton, Zurich, Oct. 10. Tigran Tadevosyan / Photolure

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Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the foreign ministers of Russia, France, and Switzerland, and the European Union's top diplomat were all on hand in Zurich on October 10 for the signing of the protocols on the normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey. They wished to provide international backing for protocols they had strongly supported throughout the negotiating process mediated by the Swiss, and to share the credit for bringing together two nations that have been at odds for as long as anyone can remember.

The precise contours of the disagreement between Armenia and Turkey were lost in most of the media coverage. There was something about many people allegedly getting killed 90-odd years ago. There was something about drawing borders and opening borders. But what mattered was that the international community - for once - had apparently succeeded in resolving a longstanding conflict. Perhaps President Obama deserved his Nobel Peace Prize after all.

But not so fast. The whole thing looked like it was going to fall apart. There was a hitch. What was the hitch? Was the Armenian side getting cold feet? Did Armenia need extra persuading, extra cajoling? Mrs. Clinton had to miss a flight, but that's okay; "it's just what you sign up for" when you become secretary of state, as she put it.

No, Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian did not need extra cajoling. Indeed, a failure to sign the protocols, to which the administration of President Serge Sargsyan has deeply committed itself, would be an embarrassment to the foreign minister and the administration.

What had happened was that the fundamental contradiction in Turkey's two public positions had come to a head.

On the one hand, Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was preparing to sign an agreement under which Turkey would end its 16-year blockade of Armenia - on terms explicitly stated in the agreement.

On the other hand, his government took - and takes - the position that it would not end the blockade until Armenia agreed to an additional condition that does not appear in the document. The additional condition, of course, is to reach an agreement on the Karabakh conflict on Azerbaijan's terms.

It appears that Mr. Davutoglu was going to state this additional condition in his remarks after the signing. Mr. Nalbandian felt he could not allow such a condition to be voiced at the signing, lest it appear that Armenia was agreeing to the condition. The eventual solution was that all parties agreed to say nothing. This solution allowed the signing to take place. But it did not solve the underlying problem, which is Turkey's reluctance to abide by the terms negotiated.

Turkey closed the border to make Armenians suffer and force them into concessions to Azerbaijan. Such concessions have been Turkey's primary precondition for ending its blockade. If Turkey agreed - by initialing the protocols and now by signing them - to forgo this precondition, perhaps it understood that (a) the pressure was not working and (b) promoting mutual trust in the region would be more conducive than the status quo to a resolution of various issues, including the Karabakh conflict.

But Ankara apparently can't give up on its 16-year tactic. Maybe, the prime minister appears to think, Yerevan will succumb to pressure now, now that an open border seems within reach.

President Sargsyan has made it clear, however, that he will not accept any linkage between Armenia-Turkey relations and Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. If Turkey drags its feet on ratifying the protocols, or if it ratifies the protocols and fails to implement them, Armenia will not sit around and wait passively.

"The Armenian side will have a corresponding reaction if Turkey protracts the process of ratification or raises conditions for it," Mr. Sargsyan said in an address to the nation on October 10, hours before his foreign minister signed the protocols. "Armenia undertakes no unilateral commitments though these protocols and does not make any unilateral affirmations. Armenia is signing these protocols in order to create a basis for the establishment of normal relations between our two countries. Hence, if Turkey fails to ratify the protocols within a reasonable timeframe and does not implement all the clauses contained herein within the provided timeframe, or violates them in the future, Armenia will immediately take appropriate steps as stipulated by the international law."

In this position, Armenia has the stated support of the United States and the rest of the international community. The Obama administration and the Clinton State Department have insisted repeatedly that normalization should happen within a reasonable timeframe and without preconditions. The big question is whether the administration and the State Department are going to make the effort to see their policy implemented.

In Zurich, diplomats postponed the problem by agreeing to no post-signing speeches. But the problem will not go away. Turkey needs to be told in no uncertain terms that it will be held responsible for its conduct going forward.

The Obama administration expended much energy and political capital to secure the protocols. It has received credit for the apparent progress made to date. But normalization will not happen - indeed the concept of normalization will be discredited for a long time - if Turkey is allowed to destroy the process. The administration needs to do more to prevent that from happening.

We urge our readers in the United States to remind the Obama administration of its key responsibility in moving all parts of the process forward - toward normalization of relations and also toward the affirmation by Turkey of some of the darkest pages of its past, the Armenian Genocide.