Moving Turkish-Armenian relations to a new level

Published: Friday April 03, 2009

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U.S., Turkish, and Armenian diplomats have been spreading word that an agreement between Turkey and Armenia is imminent. The agreement would likely have the following elements:

• Turkey would agree to open the border with Armenia, which it closed 16 years ago today, and to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia.

• Armenia would agree to an intergovernmental commission to examine all issues that constitute the Armenia-Turkey agenda.

• The United States would refrain from dealing publicly with any of the most contentious historical and contemporary issues on the Armenia-Turkey agenda while the commission was in play.

(Alternatively, the sides will formally agree to discuss these matters further. In other words, a process rather than an outcome will be announced. Such a process could and likely would be dragged out indefinitely and thus, would have the effect of reinforcing the status quo.)

If Turkey actually opens the border and agrees to establish diplomatic relations, it would be taking steps in the right direction. The border closure has been illegal. Both Armenia and Turkey's eastern provinces will see some benefits from open borders. And Turkey will gain some credibility as a regional leader.

Furthermore, if Turkey actually opens the border, it will signal that it no longer allows Azerbaijan-Armenia relations to determine the nature of Turkey-Armenia relations. Such a change would be a welcome step toward regional stability and integration.

Armenia's challenge is to secure normal relations with Turkey while refusing to fudge on the truth and ongoing relevance of the Armenian Genocide. 

Turkey's challenge is that it needs to go beyond its annual pre-April 24 charm offensive and actually do something with Armenia.

The challenge for the United States is to secure results for the new foreign-affairs approach put forth by the Obama administration. Since President Obama has made repeated and unequivocal promises to recognize the Armenian Genocide, ignoring it is not an option.

In fulfilling his commitment, Mr. Obama would help move the relationship between Armenia and Turkey to a new level. At that level, Turkey's primary concern would no longer be to find a way to avoid settled history. Rather, the shared concern would be to find ways to move forward to a brighter future.