Armenia prepares to elect a president

Published: Saturday February 16, 2008

Those citizens of Armenia who are present in Armenia on Tuesday, February 19, will have the opportunity to head for the polls and choose one of nine men as the country's third president. If one candidate gets the votes of more than half of the electorate, Armenia will have a new president. Otherwise, voters will choose between the two candidates with the most votes in a second round, two weeks later. The new president will be inaugurated by April 9, when President Robert Kocharian's second term expires.

As in any contested election, passions are running high in the last days. This is an indication that people in Armenia care deeply about who will be their future head of state. That's a good thing. And the passion should translate into high voter turnout and unwillingness on the part of voters to accept inducements to vote for this or that candidate. That's also a good thing.

This is an exciting moment for Armenia. It is also a critical moment: for people to maintain their faith in their burgeoning nation, the elections must be free and fair, building on the excellent progress made in the May 2007 elections. The Central Electoral Commission is legally responsible to ensure that the elections meet this standard. The president, the government, the Central Electoral Commission, and various candidates have declared their commitment to free and fair elections. Ultimately, it is the responsibility of every citizen to be active and vigilant.

The prime minister, Serge Sargsian, remains the frontrunner. He is standing on his own record of 15 years at the top echelons Armenia's government under two presidents; and promising stability and continuity in policies that have seen an improvement in the standard of living of most Armenians. He appears likely to win the majority of votes either on February 19, or in a second round.

Among the other candidates, three have emerged as his main challengers: Artur Baghdasarian of the Country of Laws Party, Vahan Hovhannesian of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, and Levon Ter-Petrossian, Armenia's first president.

All three drew huge crowds to rallies in Yerevan's Freedom Square last week. (Mr. Sargsian will hold a rally there on Sunday, February 17.)

Mr. Baghdasarian appeals to various segments of the electorate with specific programs. He advocates closer relations with the West. The Speaker of the parliament until two years ago, he has since been a critic of the current government. But he has distanced himself from the more aggressive rhetoric of Mr. Ter-Petrossian, emphasizing the need for stability.

Mr. Hovhannesian has likewise emphasized the need for stability as changes are introduced. Emphasizing his independence from businesspeople who have a large role in Armenia's public policy, he has argued that he can guarantee the independence of the courts and law enforcement bodies and thus fight corruption. The widely held expectation that likeminded candidate Vazgen Manukian would drop out of the race to endorse him did not materialize, to the detriment of Mr. Hovhannesian's candidacy.

Mr. Ter-Petrossian's rally, on Saturday, February 9, drew a somewhat larger crowd than the rallies of the other two candidates. At the rally, he received the endorsement of three former supporters of Mr. Sargsian in parliament. A few days later, Raffi Hovannisian's Heritage Party endorsed his candidacy, adding to his momentum.

While a large proportion of the population continue to revile Mr. Ter-Petrossian and his team (blaming them for the disappointments and struggles of the 1990s, as well as the suppression of democracy and a defeatist position on Karabakh), he now stands a chance of taking a respectable third place - or even going into a run-off as the winner of the second largest number of votes.

He has reached this point in part by exuding confidence. One thing that has helped him along has been the fact that a couple of secondary candidates (particularly Artashes Geghamian), along with Public Television, have spent an inordinate amount of time attacking his record and raising the alarm about the presumed policies he would pursue if elected. With this focus on him, many among the people who do not want to see Mr. Sargsian win the presidency have become convinced that Mr. Ter-Petrossian is the only alternative.

There is a legitimate concern that the confidence Mr. Ter-Petrossian exudes could translate into an unwillingness to accept the voters' verdict, should it be unfavorable to his candidacy. In the aftermath of the May 2007 parliamentary elections, some of the groups that have since formed the core of Mr. Ter-Petrossian's campaign were at pains to cast doubt on the unanimous conclusion of election observers that the elections were mostly free and fair. In defeat, they may escalate that campaign this time around.

The rhetoric from that camp has been highly confrontational. Faced this week with the refusal of Mr. Baghdasarian to step out of the race in favor of Mr. Ter-Petrossian, Mr. Ter-Petrossian actually accused Mr. Baghdasarian of treason. "Whatever he says, no matter how many votes he gets, those votes will not be his," Mr. Ter-Petrossian said on February 16. Unless he drops out to "stand by the people," Mr. Ter-Petrossian added, "he will betray the popular cause."

In these circumstances, it is especially important for all parties to help ensure that the elections are held in a calm atmosphere, without intimidation, freely and fairly. And that all the candidates and their supporters respect the will of the people. We are confident that they will. For we have faith in the wisdom of the Armenian people.